Hezbollah’s Stark Warning: The Potential Consequences of Expanded Conflict in Lebanon

 

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, has issued a grave warning to Israel, cautioning that an expanded full-scale conflict in Lebanon would result in “large losses on both sides” and cause further displacement, particularly of Israelis in the country’s northern regions. These comments came amidst growing tensions between the two nations, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly on the verge of launching a “broad and strong operation” on the northern border. Since the beginning of the Gaza war in October, Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in near-daily exchanges of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border.

This mounting hostility has already resulted in significant human and infrastructural losses. Dozens of people in Israel and hundreds in Lebanon have lost their lives, while tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides. According to Qassem, while Hezbollah is not inclined to engage in a war, it will not shy away from retaliating if Israel escalates its operations. “If Israel does unleash a war, we will face up to it – and there will be large losses on both sides,” Qassem said during a speech in Beirut, emphasizing the dire consequences of any potential expansion of hostilities.

He further warned Israel against assuming that its military actions would lead to the safe return of the 100,000 displaced Israelis in the northern region, stating that such a scenario would instead cause even more displacement. “Prepare to deal with hundreds of thousands more displaced,” Qassem declared, painting a grim picture of what an all-out conflict could entail.

In support of the Palestinian cause, Hezbollah has intensified its attacks on Israel, aiming to show solidarity with Gaza. These attacks, however, are conditional on Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and the cessation of hostilities in the coastal enclave. According to Qassem, “Hezbollah’s support for Gaza will continue from Lebanon as long as the war persists, with increased support in response to Israeli aggression.”

On the other side, Israel’s military and political leadership are bracing for the possibility of an expanded northern front. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently hinted that Israel's operations in Gaza are nearing completion and that the focus will soon shift to the Lebanese border. Addressing troops stationed in the north, Gallant stated that the “centre of gravity is moving northward,” signaling that the northern border might soon become the focal point of Israeli military efforts.

The escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have drawn sharp political reactions from opposition politicians in Israel as well. Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s main political rival, criticized the current government for “neglecting” northern residents, calling for decisive action against Hezbollah. “It is time to exercise power and authority against Hezbollah and return the residents to their homes safely,” Gantz said, underscoring the growing public and political pressure within Israel for a robust military response.

As of now, the casualties from this conflict have continued to mount. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have claimed 623 lives, including 142 civilians, while Hezbollah’s operations have killed 24 Israeli soldiers and 26 civilians. Despite these losses, both sides seem entrenched in their positions, making any peaceful resolution appear increasingly elusive.

Amidst these hostilities, the Israeli military continues its operations, launching airstrikes on what it claims to be Hezbollah’s weapons storage facilities. On Saturday evening, Israeli air forces reportedly targeted locations in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley and the southern region, causing injuries to civilians, including children. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has responded with a series of retaliatory attacks, hitting Israeli artillery positions and military installations.

With Netanyahu on the verge of a major escalation and Hezbollah poised to respond with full force, the prospects of de-escalation seem slim. The looming question remains: how far will this conflict go, and what will be the cost in human lives and regional stability?