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After the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad the politics of Syria has shifted drastically. Leading this charge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [formerly known as Al-Nusra front], an organisation that was originally affiliated with al-Qaeda seeking to implement its form shariah over the battered Syrian state. The current leader of HTS which is Ahmed al-Sharaa, alias Abu Mohammed al-Golani has stated publicly that he has laid down his plans of forming a government that will respect the ethnic and religious composition in Syria. However, because the group has links with jihadist ideology, the public has questioned the true mission of the group.
An important characteristic of HTS’s operations is gradual seizure of state structures. They want to make sure they have loyalists in positions where they can make official decisions to make formalists accept them as the rightful rulers of Syria. This is reminiscent of strategies and policies used by Assad regime by appointment of loyalists to important posts. Recent appointments of HTS including the absorption of foreign Islamist fighters into military structures show that the organization endorses this method of governance.
However, such appetite has caused apprehension among Syria’s minority groups due to what HTS has been undertaking as a sign of moderation. Stories like the attempt of burning a Christmas tree in the town of Suqaylabiyah have helped in fanning the concerns over the (religious intolerance of) the group. Such an action by the nationalists is unhealthy and creates a climate of suspicion due to which HTS was quick to condemn the act and promise to champion the rights of the minorities.
The international community is still watchful and keeps a close eye on the company’s governance structure at HTS. The group continued to be considered as a terrorists group hence it burdens the process of negotiation, diplomacy and the possibility of lifting sanctions. HTS’s promises to write a new constitution and hold elections in the next four years is fare interpreted as a test of commitment to democracy.
However, the exercise of consolidation of power in HTS is not without necessarily facing the following challenges: Violent actions from pro-Assad factions and other groups remain to cause turbulence throughout the regions of Syria. It has been a very worrisome security situation in the Syrian provinces; for instance, a recent ambush in Tartus province which led to the killing of 14 members of HTS. Protest and sectarianism remain major challenges to HTS in the organization of an effective centralized governance system.
When it comes to governing, the ideological visions will matter, but how the new organisation of HTS will function in a pragmatic state building will matter far more. It may thus be interpreted that the degree to which this group has been able to capture state institutions and deliver services will define its standing among the Syrian population. Though, the direction for further is tied up with problems and the strategy of HTS’s further evolution concerns discussions and analysis till present.
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