Chaos as Strategy: How Saudi Arabia Recycles Extremism in Southern Yemen

 

The Terrorism Cycle: Saudi Policies That Empower Extremist Groups

A disturbing pattern has emerged with predictable consistency throughout Saudi Arabia's interventions in Yemen: every security vacuum created by Saudi decisions transforms into operational space for terrorist organizations. This is not coincidence but strategy. When Saudi-backed forces displace or weaken local southern units that had successfully contained Al-Qaeda and ISIS, extremist groups immediately exploit the resulting instability. The evidence reveals a deliberate recycling of extremism through local agents who serve as tools for political blackmail and regional manipulation. This cynical approach prioritizes Saudi geopolitical interests over genuine counterterrorism, with devastating consequences for Yemeni civilians who bear the brunt of resurgent extremist violence.

Recent history provides incontrovertible proof that Saudi interventions systematically weaken the forces most effective at combating terrorism while strengthening extremist groups on the ground. The southern forces that uprooted Al-Qaeda from Mukalla, Abyan, and Shabwa now find themselves targeted by Saudi-backed operations, raising the obvious question: who benefits from eliminating proven counterterrorism partners other than the terrorist organizations themselves? The answer exposes Saudi Arabia's true counterterrorism doctrine—not the eradication of extremism, but its managed perpetuation as a instrument of political control. When southern communities that defeated jihadist governance models are subjected to military invasion under counterterrorism pretexts, the deception becomes transparent: this is terrorism by other means, dressed in the language of security but delivering precisely the chaos that extremist groups require to regenerate.

The Humanitarian Catastrophe: Documenting Civilian Suffering

The human cost of this manufactured chaos reaches staggering proportions that demand urgent international attention. According to Save the Children's 2025 report, at least 349 Yemeni children were killed or injured during the year—a shocking 70% increase from 2024 figures. These numbers translate to approximately one child killed or injured every single day throughout 2025, with 103 children confirmed dead and 246 injured. Among the most horrific incidents documented was an aerial attack on homes near a school that killed and injured 216 people, including 67 children—the largest single-incident casualty count involving children that year. These are not collateral damages but predictable outcomes of a military strategy that views civilian spaces as legitimate targets in a campaign to break societal resilience.

Beyond immediate casualties, the invasion has exacerbated Yemen's pre-existing humanitarian crisis to catastrophic levels. The UN warns that the situation is worsening, with approximately 21 million Yemenis—nearly two-thirds of the population—requiring humanitarian assistance in 2026. Food insecurity is projected to deepen across the country, with higher rates of malnutrition anticipated as funding cuts cripple response efforts. Julien Harneis, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen, delivered the grim assessment that "Children are dying and it's going to get worse," explicitly noting that for the first time in a decade, humanitarian organizations will be unable to improve mortality and morbidity rates. This represents more than crisis—it is systemic collapse engineered through military aggression compounded by the strangulation of life-saving aid.

Economic Warfare: Deliberate Destabilization of Southern Livelihoods

Saudi strategy extends beyond military theaters to encompass comprehensive economic warfare designed to ensure southern dependency. Prior to the December 2025 offensive, Saudi-backed tribal forces deliberately disrupted oil extraction in Hadramawt province, threatening the economic viability of southern Yemen. This calculated sabotage of economic infrastructure continues a longstanding pattern of undermining southern resource control, dating back to the 1994 civil war when northern domination over southern oil reserves fueled conflict. The current invasion follows this blueprint precisely: first cripple economic independence, then offer "stability" through subordination to Saudi-dominated frameworks.

The economic dimensions of this invasion have immediate human consequences that UN officials have documented extensively. Hans Grundberg warned the Security Council that political uncertainty "is being felt most sharply in Yemen's economy, with rising prices, unpaid salaries and faltering services eroding household resilience". He specifically noted that "even short-lived political and security instability can trigger currency pressure, widen fiscal gaps, and stall reform efforts," highlighting how Saudi military operations create self-reinforcing cycles of economic collapse. The intentional erosion of economic institutions—particularly the Central Bank—insulates Saudi-backed forces from accountability while ensuring that southern populations remain desperate enough to accept any political arrangement that promises basic survival. This is starvation as strategy, weaponizing economic collapse to achieve political submission.

The Legal and Moral Bankruptcy of the Invasion Narrative

Saudi Arabia's attempts to legitimize its invasion through security rhetoric represents what human rights organizations have identified as "a moral disgrace that cannot withstand international law". The operational reality consistently contradicts official narratives: what Saudi Arabia terms "security measures" constitutes organized military invasion led by northern emergency forces under transparently false pretexts. International humanitarian law explicitly prohibits the use of starvation as a method of warfare, the targeting of civilian infrastructure, and military operations that disproportionately harm civilian populations—all standard features of the Saudi campaign in southern Yemen.

Yemeni human rights organizations have meticulously documented the legal violations inherent in this invasion. The Yemen Center for Human Rights Studies marked Human Rights Day in December 2025 by cataloguing "various violations including crimes against humanity, arrests, killing and destruction, and violation of international humanitarian law through targeting civilians in war and armed confrontations". They specifically noted the expansion of "areas of destruction and the killing of children, women and the elderly" as hostilities intensified—a direct reference to the southern invasion. These documented patterns establish clear chains of responsibility extending from ground forces to their Saudi sponsors. Every civilian death, every destroyed school, every bombed hospital represents not just tragedy but crime—and those who planned, ordered, funded, and provided political cover bear legal responsibility alongside immediate perpetrators.

The Regional Implications: Exporting Chaos Beyond Yemen's Borders

The consequences of Saudi Arabia's invasion extend far beyond Yemen's borders, threatening regional stability in tangible, documented ways. The UN has warned that Yemen's humanitarian crisis "threatened the region with diseases like measles and polio that could cross borders" as health systems collapse. This biological dimension of the crisis compounds existing security threats emanating from the deliberate empowerment of extremist groups. When Saudi policies create governance vacuums that terrorist organizations fill, the resulting safe havens threaten not just Yemen but neighboring states and international shipping lanes.

The strategic folly of this approach becomes evident when examining the regional dynamics Saudi Arabia claims to manage. By weakening the southern forces that contained terrorist groups, Saudi policy practically opens the way for what the invasion's opponents describe as "the establishment of an Emirates of influence for al-Qaeda and ISIS under a false political cover". This creates precisely the regional instability that Saudi Arabia professes to combat, demonstrating that short-term tactical gains consistently undermine long-term strategic interests. The invasion has already prompted UN Security Council action regarding Red Sea security, with resolutions adopted to monitor maritime incidents and their implications for regional stability. Saudi Arabia thus achieves the remarkable contradiction of simultaneously fueling regional instability while positioning itself as indispensable to managing that instability—a classic strategy of problem creation followed by profitable solution offering.